NEW DELHI: First, there was a series of pow-wows between Prime Minister Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. Several social media posts highlighted collapsed roads and bridges, thus subtly undermining Surface Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari. And then, four new members were suddenly appointed to the Rajya Sabha, raising the strength of the ruling benches in the house.
The fact that those nominees became members just before Vice-president Jagdeep Dhankhar resigned on Monday makes one wonder whether there is a connection between the two events. The ruling side will have four additional votes to ensure a vice-president of its choice when Dhankhar’s successor is elected over the next few weeks.
The question is: has the vacancy been created because Dhankhar decided it was time to go—he claimed he resigned for health reasons—or because a vacancy was required in order to instal someone else as the vice-president?
Since it seems that the RSS would like Prime Minister Modi to resign when he turns 75 in September, could it possibly be that he is to be accommodated as vice-president—a sort of parting gift, or a partial compromise over the age issue?
RSS Sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat recently announced publicly that those who turn 75 ought to resign their responsibilities and make way for younger persons. When Modi had become prime minister in 2014, senior party figures such as Murli Manohar Joshi were said to have joined a Margdarshak Mandal—a guidance council. Modi will turn 75 on 17 September. On the other hand, Shah is only 60, and Adityanath is barely 53 years old.
Although it could be argued that both Dhankharand his predecessor, former BJP president Venkaiah Naidu, left office at the age of 74, Hamid Ansari, who was the vice-president for ten years before that, was re-elected at the age of 75 and left office at the age of 80.
Could Shah move up?
Although this entire scenario seems unlikely, just in case something like it is indeed playing out, Modi’s replacement would most likely be either Amit Shah or Yogi Adityanath—the two leaders with whom the PM had confabulations recently.
Many BJP backers would root for Adityanath, but the body language of the home minister during his recent meeting with Adityanath might suggest that Shah could become the new prime minister—if indeed such a scenario is to play out. It is quite possible that, for the moment at least, Yogi Adityanath might take his place as home minister—or perhaps as the defence minister in a putative new cabinet.
Modi and Shah have had a close working relationship for more than a quarter-century, and so Modi would probably be more agreeable to hand over his chair to Shah than to anyone else—if indeed he decides that he should do so at all.
All this is happening just when the incumbent Lieutenant-governor of Jammu and Kashmir, Manoj Sinha, is completing his term. He could be accommodated either in the Union cabinet or as the new chief minister of his home state, UP.
Political calculations
I had hinted in an article a couple of years ago that Modi might try to become the next UN secretary-general when the incumbent completes his term at the end of 2026. Given the international situation today, that is now out of the question.
Some have speculated that Modi might become the president of India at some stage. However, even if that were in his mind, it would have been politically unwise to have asked President Draupadi Murmu to resign to make way for him to move up at this stage.
First, Murmu is a woman and a tribal, and any perceived humiliation could cost the ruling party votes in several parts of the country. On the other hand, Dhankhar is a Jat and the Jat vote had proven a tough nut for the BJP to crack, at least in the period soon after the agitations against the farm laws. On a national level, a shift in the Jat vote would make a relatively small impact compared with the women’s and tribal constituencies.
Second, the electoral college for the election of a president is more complicated than the electoral college for the vice-president. All members of the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha together vote for a vice-president. If the NDA bloc remains united, the ruling benches have a majority.
For a President, on the other hand, MPs comprise only half the strength of the electoral college. The other 50 per cent of the college comprises members of state legislative assemblies across the country. Their votes are given weightage through a complex calculation so that the cumulative strength of their votes is half of the total.
Although the NDA is likely to have a strong majority in that electoral college, it would bring regional satraps of the ruling party into play. For instance, Yogi Adityanath alone may control at least 5 per cent of the total electoral college. Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis too would influence a chunk—as, of course, would Bhagwat. Amit Shah is likely to have far greater control over the MPs.
Deputy chairman could shoulder more responsibilities
The incumbent Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha, Harivansh Narayan Singh, will probably carry more of the weight of running and presiding over the Rajya Sabha now—especially if Modi were possibly to become the vice-president, and hence the ex officio chairman of the house.
Singh is a reputed journalist who was with the Janata Dal (United). He has earned respect for his civility, acumen, and maturity while he has gained immense experience during the seven years he has spent as deputy chairman. The new chairman could trust him to play a greater role, letting him preside more often, especially when the mood of the house is turbulent.
Indeed, it Dhankhar’s health was such a major concern, one wonders if he couldn’t have delegated more work and responsibility to the deputy chairman, and only presided for a brief period every morning whenever the house was in session during the remaining two years of his term.
Several observers have expressed surprise over the reason Dhankhar has given for resigning—that he wants to prioritise his health. Indeed, eyebrows have been raised, for most people might be chary of giving up the pomp and perquisites of such high office unless ill-health incapacitated them.
The prime minister posted on X on Tuesday that “Shri Jagdeep Dhankhar Ji has got many opportunities to serve our country in various capacities, including as the Vice President of India. Wishing him good health.”
