So, is Iran going to become another Iraq, or like Libya, or will history record that World War III began on the summer solstice, or even on Friday the 13th?
One thing seems sure: the US’s bombing of nuclear sites in Iran on Saturday night will widen the scope of the ongoing war which Israel initiated against Iran ten days ago.
If the US is sucked farther into the war, and that then brings China (and possibly Russia) in too, this could become a global war. In any case, it seems certain that this attack will lead to a much bigger conflict than was on the cards until Saturday.
Iran may not immediately attack US bases in the region, or even but has opted to close the Strait of Hormuz. It has already done the obvious—attack Israel more strongly. It might even target Israel’s nuclear facilities. But it has meanwhile kept the door open for dialogue through European countries.
Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamanei’s responses have been remarkably restrained. He did not attack Israel when it killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasarallah in Lebanon, and ousted Bashar Al-Assad’s government in Syria soon after. (In retrospect, those were all preparatory steps (in late 2024) for the attack on Iran, and so that restraint may have been strategic mistakes.)
Despite Khamanei’s restraint, push and pull factors will likely lead to escalation. The groundswell of public anger at home will push for a military response for the attacks on Iran’s three major nuclear facilities on Saturday night. On the other hand, Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu may keep trying to engineer regime change in Iran—even though President Trump called for peace immediately after he announced the strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Ungovernable chaos unlikely
Netanyahu may prefer the sort of chaos that Libya has seen since its former ruler, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, was brutally overthrown. For, the formidable Zionist network’s agents provocateurs are adept at manipulating the sorts of gangs and warlords that thrive in chaos.
However, Iran is very unlikely to descend into chaos. Shias in Iran and elsewhere regard Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamanei with greater reverence than most Christians have for the Pope. They will reverentially accept any of the three successors he has already secretly nominated. Plus, he has fully empowered the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Council (IRGC) Praetorian guard to execute the war as it sees fit.
Already, the speed with which the regime and its army recovered from the decapitation attacks with which Israel opened this war on Friday 13 June showed amazing resilience. Plus, Iran is said to have innumerable drones and missiles in stock—and some of its missiles have shown eye-popping ability to evade air defences, and even turn some of Israel’s much-vaunted interceptors against each other.
As for a ground war like the ones that engulfed Iraq, Afghanistan, and Vietnam for years, the US—and its major allies—are unlikely to put boots on the ground there. Iran has mountains on all three sides, which make it easy for its ground forces to defend it. Perhaps more important, Iran’s Shias are likely to prove as endlessly unrelenting in defence of their country as did the Afghans and the Vietnamese.
Will China get involved?
The most important question is whether, and to what extent, China or Russia will aid Iran. China already appears to have sent cyber resources to help Iranian forces to spot incoming missiles, and perhaps also to precisely target positions in Israel.
China has the most to lose from a putative Western takeover of Iran’s oil resources. Having just completed a railway connection to Iran, it would look forward to much easier supplies. Plus, Beijing would see a Western win there as a setback in its larger—albeit unstated—effort to gain global influence.
However, Beijing is likely very adverse to joining the war, except with logistical aid and armaments.
Russia would actually gain economically from an oil price hike, in case Iran obstructs the Strait of Hormuz. For, Russia has bigger oil reserves than even Iran. Russia signed a strategic alliance treaty with Iran early this year, but it does not vouchsafe military aid.
Indeed, it seems that the only country that may stand by Iran is Yemen—the only country to have stood meaningfully against Israel and the West over the Gaza genocide.
So, unless something major triggers Russia, and China too, to enter the war headlong, Iran seems to be on its own. Both may send cyber and satellite intel support, plus arms and ammunition, even if Russia only does so covertly, to add heft to Iran’s immense resilience and national will.
