A range of BJP leaders have welcomed the announcement that the government has decided to include caste enumeration in the census, which is to take place, perhaps in a year or two. But these statements are evidently simply following the party line. Several prominent right-wing voices not bound by party discipline have expressed dismay. In fact, one prominent right-wing activist who has a myriad of fans stated critically that the government’s backers were expecting strong action against Pakistan but had instead been served up this caste census.
I wonder whether ‘because’ might be a more appropriate word than ‘instead.’ Could there be a causal connection between the bloodbath in Pahalgam last week and this decision to enumerate castes in the forthcoming census?
Indeed, ironically, this connection might be even more likely if the government feels that its hands are tied with regard to strong action against Pakistan.
For, the most immediate danger to the government is not from the BJP rank and file, or its right-wing backers across the country, but from the two parties that have supported it in the Lok Sabha ever since the house was constituted after the 2024 Lok Sabha polls—which were deeply disappointing for the BJP. The government only survives in the Lok Sabha with the support of the Bihar-based Samata Party and the Andhra-based Telugu Desam.
Bihar elections coming up
This is a particularly sensitive time for the Samata Party, for elections for a new Bihar assembly are due later this year—within about five months, in fact. (The gazette notification for the previous round of assembly elections was issued on 1 October 2020.)
A loss of face for the BJP following inaction—or action that may be perceived by the electorate as inadequately vigorous—could negatively impact the BJP-Samata alliance’s prospects at the hustings.
That Prime Minister Modi went to Madhubani quite soon after the Pahalgam disaster, to address a public meeting along with Bihar Chief Minister (and the face of the Samata Party) Nitish Kumar, indicates how much political importance he gives to the upcoming elections there.
The promise of a caste census could possibly assuage some of the misgivings about the performance of the government at the Centre, at least among the politically decisive backward castes in Bihar.
The other side of the coin is that this move might help to restrain Nitish Kumar, just in case he contemplates leaving the alliance—in case he sees inaction after the bloodbath as a political liability. Some would argue that he could earn political points with the electorate if he were to withdraw support. On the other hand, he might be welcomed to join a larger alliance, possibly with the RJD, the Congress, the Left, or any combination of those parties. That would allow him to remain on the treasury benches in the next assembly.
Further south, the Telugu Desam Party might also see political advantage in distancing itself from the Central government following the bloodbath. However, the promise of a caste census might help to restrain party chief Chandrababu Naidu too.
Modi and his close advisors must be keenly aware that withdrawal of support in the Lok Sabha by either of these parties would bring down the government.
Whose issue now?
An intriguing sidelight of the move to include caste enumeration in the next census is that a range of observers and analysts have interpreted it as a win for Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who is the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha.
One wonders whether some of those currently in power at the Centre see a political danger to the stability and continuity of the government, and might see the possibility that the opposition might be able to seize power—possibly if the BJP’s current allies in the Lok Sabha switch sides.
In case they do see such a possibility, however dim and distant, they may have decided that the BJP-led government might as well take the credit for including caste in the next census.
This might be an especially keenly felt priority if they see even a slim chance of Rahul Gandhi being able to come to power as prime minister in the wake of public anger after the bloodbath. Such an announcement would surely have been one of his first priorities. It was a major plank of his campaign before last year’s Lok Sabha elections.
International pressures
While state and national politics may thus both be in play behind the decision to have a caste census, international pressures might also be in play. Backing from the US and from Israel can be vital priorities for the government, and the portion of the political spectrum which backs it.
Israel is preoccupied with its own priorities in West Asia. However, the reported telephone call from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to External Affairs Minister Jaishankar on Wednesday evening may have a crucial impact. The U.S. said Rubio urged India and Pakistan to work with each other to “de-escalate tensions.”
He expressed support to India in combating extremism and urged Pakistan to cooperate in probing the terrorist attack that killed 26 men, mostly non-Muslim tourists, the State Department said.
Given the strong interest of the US in developments in the subcontinent, one wonders whether it would be too much to read meaning into Rahul Gandhi’s visit to the US just before the bloodbath in Pahalgam. He cut short his visit after the terrorist attack.
Of course, it is possible that, when all is said and done, all this speculation is just that—speculation. The decision of the government and the ruling party to make a 180-degree about-turn on such a politically sensitive issue as a caste census might just have been taken in a contextual vacuum.
