BJP To Retain Hold Over UP, Predicts Jan Ki Baat Pre-Poll Survey

| Updated: 24 December, 2021 7:40 pm IST
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NEW DELHI: If pre-poll surveys are to be believed, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is all set to retain its power in the Hindi heartland in the upcoming assembly polls, scheduled to be held early next year. Jan Ki Baat Opinion Poll has predicted the return of Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government in politically significant Uttar Pradesh. BJP is expected to win 233-252 seats with its nearest political rival Samajwadi Party getting (SP) 149-135 seats. Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) that had ruled the state from 2007 to 2012 is expected to score with its worst ever tally with 11-12 seats while Priyanka Gandhi led Congress is expected to hit rock bottom with 06-03 seats.

Yogi has emerged as the most popular leader for the Chief Minister’s post with 52 percent acceptability, while 31 percent people preferred Akhilesh Yadav as the chief minister. Mayawati who had been the chief minister for four terms has got a dismal approval of 10 percent while Priyanka Gandhi with all her grandiose schemes has failed to enthuse voters. Only two percent of people said that they wanted her as the chief minister.

According to Pradeep Bhandari, the head of Jan KI Baat, the methodology used to conduct this survey is based at “Probability Map of Outcome Model of Election Prediction. The survey was conducted by Jan Ki Baat’s field investigators across all 75 districts. The survey was started on November 22 of this year and concluded on December 20th. The total sample size was 20,000 and the survey was conducted between the age group of people between 18 to 45 years of age. The sample consisted of 52 percent males and 48 percent females.

BJP’s vote share in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections is expected to be around 39 percent while former Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav led Samajwadi Party (SP) is expected to improve upon its tally with 35 percent of the popular votes. Mayawati led BSP is set to lose a sizable chunk of its vote base and will settle at 14 percent. There is hope for the revival of Congress in India’s most politically significant state. The party despite its General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi toiling hard, is expected to get a meagre 5 percent of votes. Others may get 7 percent which is more than the Grand Old Party.

According to the survey, Eastern Uttar Pradesh is all set for a tough battle between the ruling BJP and its main opposition SP. BJP is expected to win 53 to 59 seats in this region while SP may win 43 to 40 seats. BSP and Congress may stand relegated to non-significance with 01-03 and 02-00 seats respectively.

The most interesting battle is all set to unfold in the Jat dominated Western Uttar Pradesh. Despite the year long agitation led by Rakesh Tikait and joining of ranks between SP and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) of Jayant Chaudhary, BJP appears to have weathered the storm. It is expected to reap a rich harvest with 84-88 seats while SP may win 55-51 seats. BSP which got a sizable number of votes in this crucial belt has been relegated to a poor third with 06-05 seats while Congress is almost dead with 02-00 seats.

In Bundelkhand regions, BJP is poised to repeat its 2017 performance with 19-21 seats while SP and BSP may get 06-03 and 00-01 seats respectively.

Avadh region, once considered the bastion of SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav, has slipped away from its grasp. The Jan Ki Baat survey has found that BJP may garner 77-84 seats in this region while SP is expected to finish 45-41 seats. BSP and Congress have just no political base in this region. They are expected to get 04-03 and 02-01 seats respectively.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s public welfare schemes have tilted the balance in favour of the saffron party. Around 75 percent of voters said that Central Schemes have benefited the people. Some 52 percent voters appeared satisfied with the performance of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath while 48 percent were negative. Around 55 percent people said that ‘polarisation’ was taking place whereas 45 percent respondents replied in negative.

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