I sincerely hope the Governmentโs strategists have taken a range of
factors into account while deciding to suspend the Indus Waters
Treatyโfor it has opened the way for Pakistan to set aside the Shimla
Agreement, which asserts that the Kashmir dispute is a bilateral issue
on which no other country or world organisation has a locus.
The more immediate fall-out of tit-for-tat moves is that Indian flight
operators will have to take long detours to avoid Pakistani air space.
This will be especially true of west-bound flights from Delhi. The cost will
be borne by passengers, airlines, and the economy.
As for the Indus waters, India already has what it needs. The Treaty
gives India riparian rights to the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi. The Treaty gives
riparian rights to the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab to Pakistan. Yet, India
has built important run-of-the-river projects on the Chenab at Batote, on
the Jhelum between Boniyar and Uri, and on the Kishanganga in Gurez.
Pakistan has already been protesting against these run-of-the-river
projects.
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It will be very tough to divert the major flow of the Chenab, and well near
impossible to divert water from the Jhelum and the Indus, if the
government decides to divert a large part of those rivers instead of just
drawing power from the gushing flow at the run-of-the-river dams.
Mountainous geography
The Indus flows beyond the Great Himalayan Range in Ladakh. In the
Leh region, it is separated from the Kashmir Valley by the Zanskar range
and Valley too. Even in the Batalik region east of Kargil, the sheer height
of the main Himalayan range divides it from the Valley, and the sub-
valley, Tuleil. It is possible to build a tunnel through that range, but it
would be a massive exercise.
In any case, that would only bring the Indus water (some of it) to the
Jhelum Valley (Kashmir). On this side of the Valley is the Pir Panchal
rangeโthe one up which ski lifts take visitors from Gulmarg. That too is
a range of perennial snow, and would be very difficult to cut through.
The Himalayas are relatively young mountains, and so somewhat
unstable. Earthquakes and floods could potentially pose a great danger
to projects to divert a major part of these riversโfor, the sheer force of
the flow through those tunnels would be tremendous. Plus, the channels
would take up a lot of land in the valleys.
Even if tunnels were built under both ranges, the water would still come
straight to the Chenabโor to Poonch, which is close to the Line of
Control. From around Akhnoor, where the Chenab flows through foothills
before entering Pakistan, it would be very tough to build a channel to
carry a large volume of water east to around Lakhanpur, and from there
into Gurdaspur district of (Indian) Punjab.
Various ramifications
The fact that, even 30 years after Prime Minister Narasimha Rao
announced the construction of a railway line to Kashmir, the rail
connection has still not been inaugurated should give us pause. For, the
construction of a massive river-diversion project could take far longer.
Meanwhile, Indiaโs airlines will start hurting immediately. The immediate
ban on flying over Pakistan will raise their fuel costs, which have already
become astronomical in light of exorbitant fuel taxes. That will result in
even higher ticket and cargo prices, making it uneconomical for
travellers and traders to use India-based airlines.
China could be the biggest beneficiary if Pakistan actually trashes the
Shimla Agreement. Chairman Xi has sought to treat it as a trilateral
issue. According to the briefing Chinese media received, he told Prime
Minister Modi at their Mamallapuram summit that the three countries
should sort out the J&K issue together.
War beneficiaries
On the other hand, the Military-Industrial Complex based in the US and
Israel are eager to sell arms to every side in any conflict. They would be
happy in case the current Indo-Pak face-off were to lead to heightened
conflict, if not some kind of war. Having been deprived of a war against
Iran (as they would see it), they may behind the scenes be eagerly
seeking a war elsewhere.
The security establishment has long been determined to squash every
analysis that seeks to view and interpret Kashmir through prisms other
than `proxy warโ by Pakistan, against India. Those who are close to the
security apparatus have exclusively taken this line with regard to the
bloodbath in Pehalgam. However, the sober responses of many victim
families have been encouraging.
