If one looks at the war-like moves last week as a chess game, several bits of evidence suggest that India knocked a slew of Pakistani pieces off the chess board in a devastating fourth move early on Saturday morning, and delivered a totally unexpected `check’ to Pakistan. The result, in any case, was that Pakistan ceased its military operations that morning, after accepting that eleven of its air bases had been hit in the early hours, and accepted a ceasefire that afternoon.
Surely, something major had happened for Pakistan to switch from swashbuckling, escalatory aggression to accepting a ceasefire. From Wednesday to Friday, India had been measured, trying to give Pakistan an off-ramp to stop what had become a drone and missile war on Wednesday and Thursday nights (7 and 8 May).
Whether or not the leap on Friday night actually occurred—India’s spokespersons have not owned it, and have specifically denied hitting Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal—many analysts around the world seem convinced that India hit the entrance of a cave at Kirana Hills inside which Pakistan nuclear arsenal was stored.
There are videos of a huge fire and billowing smoke at that entrance. It is of course possible that a fire at the cave entrance was caused by other means—deliberate or accidental. If such sites were indeed deliberately targeted, it was a very risky move.
Whatever the case may be, the highest levels of the US government got quickly involved, pressing the most powerful men in Pakistan and India for a ceasefire. Given the time difference, Vice-president Vance and Secretary of State Rubio must have been up part of Friday night to work the phones. Notably, Pakistan thanked the US for its efforts to bring peace; India did not.
India happily accepted an end to hostilities, however, since that is what it had sought ever since Wednesday morning, after it had hit terrorist training hubs overnight. That was only retaliation for the Pahalgam bloodbath, and to teach Pakistan a lesson—that terrorism would carry a major cost—Indian government spokespersons stated.
Initial off-ramp offers
The strikes began in the early hours of 7 May (Tuesday night), when nine terrorist training centres in Pakistan were successfully hit. While India publicly offered an off-ramp that afternoon, it appears that China, Turkey, and Azerbaijan pressed for war-like escalation—if only to test weapons and weapon systems which China and Turkey have supplied to Pakistan.
In fact, it is said that Turkish drone operators were killed in an Indian strike at the Sialkot air base. They were perhaps directly operating the drones that were aimed at Jammu from Wednesday to Friday. One wonders if Chinese military consultants also helped Pakistan with the war effort, or even helped to operate some of the Chinese-made systems that were used.
As it turned out, drones and missiles manufactured in India fared very well during the exchanges of fire last week. Overall, the Air Force under Air Chief Marshal AP Singh seems to have performed admirably.
Switch in US’s attitude
One can only speculate over whether the US, the UK, and France also covertly wanted Pakistan to escalate on Wednesday 7 May when India offered an off-ramp. Soon after the Pahalgam bloodbath, President Trump had said in an off-hand way that the two countries have been fighting over Kashmir for `1,500 years’ (sic), as if to say they were welcome to go on.
Pakistan, which the US recognises as an ally, displayed much greater aggressiveness at the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir last week, even pushing at the LoC in the Rajouri region, targeting air bases and military camps, and destroying lives and homes in Karnah, Uri, Rajouri, and most of all in the Poonch region.
Whatever happened at or around Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal on Friday night stopped that, sobered Trump’s flippancy—and perhaps changed the attitudes of many others too. The same day, Pakistan got a one billion dollar bail-out (pun intended) from the IMF, and China got an advantageous trade deal from the US.
Analysts credit India
One can only speculate about how (and even whether) India’s strategy changed on Friday night, for there has been no official word, except about operational successes. However, a host of globally respected military analysts have credited India with hitting eleven major air bases in Pakistan, and have added that Pakistan was not in a position to respond.
Austrian aviation expert and military historian Tom Cooper told an Indian interviewer that, `Pakistan attempted to hit back at India with UAVs, with artillery missiles, even with ballistic missiles… this effort failed because Indian air defences shot down the mass of incoming weaponry. On the other hand we have seen early on May 10 the IAF striking not only PAF bases but also the entrance, both entrances, to the Pakistan nuclear weapons storage site at Mushaf air base… And the fact is, in the way the military understands warfare, when you start targeting enemy nuclear weapon storage sites, it means you are absolutely sure the enemy cannot hit back… And from this point of view, it’s a clear-cut victory for India.’
Either landing strips or hangars at those eleven bases were destroyed. Analysts have further pointed out that many of these targeted air bases were near nuclear production or storage facilities. Some experts predict that those strikes on Saturday morning were so stunningly successful that they will be studied in the training of air forces for the next several decades.
It is intriguing that the media was briefed about what happened on Saturday morning by an array of very senior Indian military officers. Over the previous three days, briefings had been given by the credibly restrained Foreign Secretary, Vikram Misri, flanked by Colonel Sofiya Qureshi and Wing Commander Vyomkia Singh.
That was a very visible change, at the least, whether or not India’s approach to the ladder of escalation also changed on that fateful Friday night.
