LUCKNOW/NEW DELHI/JAMMU: An intriguing friendship is blossoming between Jammu and Kashmir L G Manoj Sinha and UP deputy chief minister Brajesh Pathak for the last three weeks amid the wait for new Uttar Pradesh BJP state president.
Sinha, who is a known UP CM Yogi Adityanath’s bete noire, has been publiclly inviting Pathak, who had joined BJP from BSP in 2016, to his Delhi J&K residence as well as Jammu residence.
Pathak dashed to Jammu on Sunday — his second meeting with Sinha — after the two leaders jointly addressed Bharat Shiksha Summit by one private Balaji foundation at Vigyan Bhawan just last week on Thursday.
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Sources in UP BJP say Sinha desperately wants to return to the BJP state unit of UP before 2027 polls as he knows his term as LG is near-completion and statehood may be restored to Jammu and Kashmir.
Sinha is holding hectic parleys with second-rung leadership of UP at a time when BJP is thinking of bringing a Dalit president to counter the threat from SP-Congress combine in UP.
WHAT POLITICAL PUNDITS SAY ON THIS?
“Pathak had kept his visit under the wraps by staying quietly at UP Bhawan Sangam — which is an MLA residence — and not the high profile UP sadan which is usually reserved for UP CM and UP dy CMs. Sinha could have played a role in convincing him. But Pathak wanted to avoid public scrutiny and hold meetings directly with Bhupendra choudhary and a big TV editor. This has been brought to notice of BJP central leadership and state leadership too,” said a senior BJP leader in UP.
Sinha has enjoyed a clean image, being an IIT-BHU alumnus in his earlier days and also holding key portfolios of telecom and railway ministries.
But many say, he likes to have his share of political fiefdom in UP time to time while taking others’ pound of flesh.
This even as Sinha’s staunch critics also insist say he doesn’t have any clout within UP anymore among voters and can’t win his own seat anywhere in Purvanchal region despite the death of Mukhtar Aznsari, the convicted goon and brother of his opponent Afzal Ansari, last year.
However, neither BJP in central Delhi nor the state unit may be inclined to accommodate Sinha on any high-profile post so rapidly as he enjoyed a Union minister portfolio earlier but went on to lose his Lok Sabha seat Ghazipur in 2019 despite a huge second Modi wave.
In this jigsaw, Pathak’s own equation with incumbent BJP Uttar Pradesh chief Bhupendra Choudhary is worrying many leaders including those who are contenders to replace Chouhdary.
“This could be an indication that they either want to use their ties to ensure Choudhary retains state leadership or bring Sinha into the fold. Both of which could be detrimental again for the BJP as neither a Jat face can be vote bank of the BJP nor a Kayasth,” said a senior political department faculty at Banaras Hindu University (BHU) who didn’t wish to be named.
“In fact, BJP needs to sharpen its ammunition to bring Dalits into their fold that were with them when they had brought Baby Rani Maurya from Uttarkhand governor to contest polls in Agra and later S P Singh Baghel. In last three years, the ground has slipped for the BJP with less than two years to go for February 2027 polls,” he added.
“The 2024 Lok Sabha result were a disaster for Choudhary under his leadership. Samajwadi Party’s vote share doubled from just 18.11% in 2019 to 33.59 % in 2024 and that of Congress touched 10-fold from 1.19% in 2019 to 9.46 % in 2024.
“The truth is just by banking on OBC or Brahmin factor alone, one can’t win Uttar Pradesh. Most of the UP leadership today is beleagured due to heavy dependence on the OBC /Brahmin factor alone. The arithmetic was cracked by Amit Shah when he was UP BJP in-charge but other successive leaders failed to take other castes along. Which means ignoring Dalits is what led to massive consolidation of Congress and SP ahead of BJP” he continued.
WHAT FACTS & PSEPHOLOGISTS SAY ON THIS?
In 2024, Samajwadi Party-Congress bettered its own record and pushed behind BJP even on SC reserved seats by winning a record 10 out of 17 seats, leaving BJP tottering at just 6 seats. One was won by Chandrasekhar Azad.
SP and Congress had managed to penetrate into Dalit-pocket boroughs in both western and eastern parts of UP, with their PDA (Pichra, Dalit and alpsankhyank) slogan by garnering both OBC as well Dalit sections of society.
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This included Lalganj, Macchlishahr, Robertsganj, Barabanki, Kaushambi, Jalaun, Etawah, Mohanlalganj, Misrikh and Nagina.
This also means that SP-Congress took away BSP’s vote bank.
BSP had registered 19.3% in 2019 Lok Sabha polls but its vote share shrunk in 2022 UP Vidhan sabha polls to 12.88 %.
In fact in 2024, it slipped to 9.2 %.
“BJP lost so many seats in UP not just because Dalit factor but also due to Nyay yojana by Congress and Rahul Gandhi. However, it i true that BJP but could not capture the BSP vote bank amid its decline and SP-Congress made use of it to extract full benefit in 2024 Lok Sabha polls by registering 43 record seats. 2027 is an open-game” said senior psephologist Bhavesh Jha and properietor of CNX- a public opinion survey.
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Along with Nyay Yojana, what had compounded problems for the BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha elections was a morphed video of Union HM Amit Shah, according to which BJP was going to end reservations for SC, ST and OBC.
Delhi Police had launched a mega investigation after it was found that someone from Telangana had morphed Shah’s speech but it had already done the damage.
Til 1989, Dalits and Muslims, not just in UP but across India were core voters of Congress.
However, after VP Singh’s decision to implement Mandal commission quota an then UP CM Mulayam Singh Yadav’s order to fire upon karsewaks had brought Dalit-dominated party BSP and BJP together to reap benefits of Brahmin-Baniya-Dalit combination.
“It is because of this perspective that with 19 -21 % Dalits in UP, BJP may checkmate SP and Congress with a Dalit president in the state to take along all castes together — one Brahmin dy CM, one non-Yadav OBC dy CM and one Thakur CM,” said a senior BJP leader.
Three strong contenders from Dalits may stand a chance — Ram Shankar Katheria, Vidya Sagar Sonkar and Ram Sakal.
